5月财政数据点评：科技与民生类支出提速

Revenue Insights - In May, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 16,007 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of only 0.13%, a decline of 1.76 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Cumulative public budget revenue from January to May decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, maintaining a similar decline as the previous value[3] - Tax revenue growth faced obstacles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in May, down from 1.9% previously, leading to a cumulative decline of 1.6% year-on-year[3] Expenditure Trends - Public budget expenditure in May reached CNY 19,372 billion, growing by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown from the previous 5.8%[4] - Cumulative expenditure growth from January to May was 4.2%, still above the annual target growth rate[4] - Science and technology expenditure surged by 20% year-on-year, while infrastructure spending showed a decline, with agricultural and community affairs down by 11.5% and 8.4% respectively[4] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in May was CNY 2,897 billion, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 16 percentage points from the previous value[5] - Government fund expenditure grew by 8.8% year-on-year in May, although this was a decrease from the previous month's growth of 45%[5] - By the end of May, government fund expenditure progress was approximately 25.7% of the annual target, still higher than the same period in 2024[5] Economic Outlook - The marginal slowdown in fiscal revenue and expenditure suggests a focus on technology, consumption, and livelihood support, with expectations for continued stable issuance of government bonds in the third quarter[6] - Potential economic pressures due to tariff disturbances may lead to further fiscal stimulus, likely through new policy financial tools[6]