低利率时代，理财子机构行为回眸与展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "post - transformation era" market pattern is basically stable, with the share of wealth management subsidiaries in the market stabilizing above 80% since 2024, and the remaining "old wealth management" business expected to be phased out in 1 - 2 years [5]. - In 2024, regulatory pressure increased, weakening the "deposit - oriented" trend of wealth management funds. The self - built valuation model has brought challenges to net - value management [5][6]. - The allocation of fixed - income assets was weak in 2024, while public funds showed development potential. Wealth management subsidiaries may further deepen cooperation with public funds to optimize asset allocation [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rise and Transformation of Wealth Management Subsidiaries - 2004 - 2017: Germination and Expansion - Bank wealth management started to germinate in 2004 and formed an initial operation model. The "rigid payment" model emerged, and the "bank - trust cooperation" and "fund pool" models were developed, which also brought some problems [22][25]. - From 2012 - 2017, bank wealth management accelerated its expansion, entering the era of "large asset management" and inter - bank wealth management. By the end of 2017, the scale had grown to about 30 trillion yuan, but issues such as "fund pools", "channels", and "nesting" needed to be addressed [30]. - 2018 - 2021: Net - value Transformation Era - The "Asset Management New Regulations" required "net - value transformation", including breaking the "rigid payment" and reducing multi - layer nesting. After the end of the transition period in 2021, the number and scale of wealth management subsidiaries grew rapidly, and the net - value management of wealth management products was basically completed [33][40]. - 2022 - 2024: New Round of Model Exploration and Supervision - After the "redemption wave" in 2022, wealth management adjusted its product and investment structure, forming new ways to smooth returns. However, in 2024, regulatory policies impacted these strategies, and some wealth management subsidiaries tried self - built valuation models [44][51]. 3.2 Disassembly of Wealth Management Subsidiary Product Structure - Overall Low Risk Level - The risk level of existing wealth management products is generally low. The proportion of first - and second - level risk products has been increasing, reaching 96.2% by the end of 2024 [55]. - Fixed - income and Cash Management Products Dominate - Fixed - income products are the mainstay, with their proportion increasing from 64.04% at the beginning of 2024 to 72.04% at the end of 2024. Cash management products weakened in 2024 due to factors such as the decline in deposit interest rates [59]. - Closed - end and Open - end Products Have Different Focuses - Closed - end products may offer higher returns or lower volatility but require investors to sacrifice some liquidity. The number of closed - end products decreased in 2024 [63]. 3.3 How Wealth Management Allocates Funds - Bonds as the Main Allocation Variety - Bonds are the main asset allocated by wealth management subsidiaries, but their allocation ratio has been decreasing, while the proportion of cash and bank deposits has been increasing. This is related to the requirements of net - value management and the supervision of cash management products [67]. - Competition and Symbiosis between Deposits and Wealth Management - There is a "seesaw" relationship between deposits and wealth management. In 2024, the "deposit - oriented" trend of wealth management funds weakened. The self - regulatory initiative on non - bank inter - bank deposit interest rates in December 2024 led to a decrease in the proportion of deposit - type assets in wealth management portfolios and an increase in the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [71][73]. - Wealth Management as an Important Investor in the Credit Bond Market - Credit bonds are the main allocation variety of wealth management, with financial bonds and urban investment bonds being the main types. Wealth management prefers short - term credit bonds. The decline in the scale of credit bonds is mainly due to the weak performance of urban investment bonds [76][77]. - Significant Increase in Wealth Management's Outsourcing to Public Funds - Outsourcing to public funds may become an important way to optimize the allocation of wealth management funds. By the end of 2024, the scale of wealth management's allocation to public funds reached 93.18 billion yuan, an increase of more than 320 billion yuan compared to the end of 2023. The main types of public funds increased were bond funds and money funds, and ETF funds also showed great growth potential [82][87]. 3.4 Outlook for Wealth Management Investment - For investors, fixed - income products in the wealth management market have certain allocation value, but attention should be paid to bond market fluctuations. The increase in investment in public funds by wealth management subsidiaries provides opportunities for diversified asset allocation, but risks also need to be considered [90].