Minsheng Securities·2025-06-21 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 新集能源, 兖矿能源, and 淮北矿业 [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upcoming peak season for coal prices, predicting a price increase due to rising daily consumption by power plants and a tight supply situation [1][6]. - In May 2025, China's coal production increased year-on-year, but there are signs of a contraction in output due to stricter environmental inspections and reduced production in some regions [1][6]. - Coal imports in May 2025 decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 7.78 million tons (-17.8%) and a month-on-month decrease of 1.79 million tons (-4.7%) [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic coal prices will remain stable in the short term, with a potential peak price of over 750 yuan/ton expected by mid-August 2025 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in daily coal consumption by power plants, with a noted increase in thermal power generation growth [1][6]. - The report indicates that the coal price at the pithead has slightly increased, while port prices have remained stable [1][6]. Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, slightly underperforming compared to the broader market indices [11][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the average coal price in Shanxi is 538 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.91% from the previous week [40]. - The report also mentions that the average price of coking coal in Shanxi remains stable at 1058 yuan/ton [40]. Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies, with Jin瑞矿业 showing the highest weekly increase of 6.98% as of June 20, 2025 [17]. - Conversely, 大有能源 experienced the largest decline, dropping by 6.11% during the same period [17].