投资策略周报：箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路-20250621

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market has been experiencing narrow fluctuations within the range of 3300-3400 for nearly two months, with low volatility in broad-based indices. The DDM framework indicates that while profits are still bottoming out, valuation support is provided by government measures to maintain wide credit [2][10][11] - The report emphasizes that there has been no overall strong style or rapid rotation in the market this year, with leading sectors being diverse, including consumption, growth, finance, and cyclical industries. This is attributed to three main factors: ongoing profit declines, the presence of both strengths and weaknesses in each style, and persistent uncertainties from overseas [3][20][23] - The current investment strategy suggests a focus on more granular sectors within major categories to avoid over-concentration. Key areas of interest include Delta G consumption, self-controlled technology, stable dividends, and gold as long-term strategic assets [4][26][28] Group 2 - The report outlines specific investment themes, such as Delta G consumption focusing on apparel, automobiles, retail, personal care, food, beverages, and new retail. The emphasis is on the marginal changes in profit growth rather than absolute values [4][26][27] - In technology, the focus is on self-controlled sectors and military applications, including AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military technology. The investment approach requires sensitivity to catalysts and a focus on domestic replacements [4][27] - The report identifies gold as a strategic asset benefiting from global uncertainties and suggests that the beginning of the third quarter will be an optimal time for gold allocation due to several converging factors, including the maturity of US debt and expectations of US interest rate cuts [4][28][29]