2025年5月份债券托管量数据点评：商业银行大幅增持国债

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody volume data in May 2025, indicating that the month - on - month increase in the total bond custody volume has widened, with different trends in various bond types and significant differences in the custody volume changes of different institutions. The bond market leverage ratio has slightly increased [1][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Custody Volume and Structure - The total bond custody volume has a wider month - on - month increase. As of the end of May 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 169.99 trillion yuan, with a net month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan, 0.56 trillion yuan more than that at the end of April [10]. - The total credit bond custody volume slightly decreased, while the custody volumes of other bonds all increased month - on - month. In May 2025, the interest - rate bond custody volume was 115.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.08% of the inter - bank bond market custody volume, with a net increase of 1.70 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody volume was 18.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.79%, with a slight month - on - month decrease of 5254 million yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody volume was 12.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.16%, with a net increase of 0.22 trillion yuan; the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) custody volume was 21.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.84%, with a net increase of 0.27 trillion yuan [10]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody Volume by Institution - Policy banks continued to increase their holdings of NCDs and major credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of major interest - rate products. - Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings of major interest - rate products while reducing their holdings of NCDs and major credit products. - Credit unions and non - legal entity products comprehensively increased their holdings of major bond types. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and major credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of NCDs. - Securities companies and overseas institutions comprehensively reduced their holdings of major bond types [22]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody Volume by Bond Type - The custody volume of treasury bonds continued to increase month - on - month, with commercial banks continuously increasing their holdings and policy banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of local government bonds continued to increase month - on - month, with commercial banks continuously increasing their holdings and policy banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of policy financial bonds changed to an increase, with commercial banks being the main buyers. - The custody volume of NCDs continued to increase month - on - month, with non - legal entity products continuously increasing their holdings and commercial banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of enterprise bonds continued to decrease month - on - month, and all institutions reduced their holdings. - The custody volume of medium - term notes continued to increase month - on - month, with non - legal entity products significantly increasing their holdings and commercial banks changing to reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of short - term commercial paper and super short - term commercial paper changed to a decrease, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers. - The custody volume of privately placed bonds continued to decrease month - on - month, with commercial banks being the main sellers [24]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of May 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 67.72%, overseas institutions 6.11%, policy banks 10.97%, non - legal entity products 8.38%, securities companies 3.10%, insurance institutions 2.56%, and credit unions 1.16% [29]. - The holder structure of policy financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 54.39%, non - legal entity products 32.12%, overseas institutions 3.32%, credit unions 3.23%, insurance institutions 2.10%, securities companies 1.01%, and policy banks 3.83% [31]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 75.11%, non - legal entity products 9.07%, policy banks 9.50%, insurance institutions 4.82%, securities companies 0.93%, credit unions 0.55%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [35]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 53.61%, commercial banks 32.85%, securities companies 9.09%, insurance institutions 3.29%, policy banks 0.74%, credit unions 0.33%, and overseas institutions 0.09% [37]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal entity products accounted for 62.74%, commercial banks 20.49%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 7.16%, policy banks 4.85%, securities companies 4.32%, others 0.24%, credit unions 0.17%, overseas institutions 0.01%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [41]. - The holder structure of privately placed bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 59.37%, commercial banks 25.05%, policy banks 1.35%, credit unions 2.10%, others 3.26%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.01%, securities companies 1.18%, overseas institutions 5.60%, and insurance institutions 0.09% [44]. - The holder structure of NCDs: non - legal entity products accounted for 64.77%, commercial banks 28.59%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.32%, securities companies 0.81%, policy banks 1.39%, others 0.25%, insurance institutions 0.09%, credit unions 0.05%, and overseas institutions 0.74% [46]. 3.3 Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio As of the end of May 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - bought under pledged repurchase was 107,343.28 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1,870.36 billion yuan. The leverage ratio was 106.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 percentage points [47].