Minsheng Securities·2025-06-21 14:16Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec as strong investment opportunities due to their robust earnings and high dividend yields [4][14]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are expected to keep oil prices fluctuating at high levels, with Brent crude oil prices recently reaching $77.01 per barrel, reflecting a 3.75% increase week-on-week [3][40]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have adjusted their forecasts for 2025, predicting an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to an anticipated surplus in the oil market [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, as ongoing conflicts could significantly impact oil supply and pricing dynamics [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report notes that geopolitical conflicts are causing fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices recently dropping below $71 per barrel before rebounding [1][9]. - The EIA and IEA have revised their 2025 forecasts, projecting global oil supply at 10435 million barrels per day and demand at 10353 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 82000 barrels per day [2][10]. 2. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $77.01 per barrel, up 3.75% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose to $73.84 per barrel, a 1.18% increase [3][40]. - The report highlights a significant rise in natural gas prices, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $3.90 per million British thermal units, marking a 10.06% increase week-on-week [11][48]. 3. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5]. - Companies such as Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas are highlighted for their growth potential, particularly in the context of domestic policies encouraging oil and gas production [4][14]. 4. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production remains stable at 13.43 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput has decreased to 16.86 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report indicates a decline in commercial crude oil inventories by 1,147 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have increased [12][13]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec, as they are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and robust earnings [4][14].