2025年5月财政数据点评：如何解读5月份财政数据？

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue was -0.3%, slightly improved from -0.4% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +4.2%, down from +4.6% in the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -6.9%, compared to -6.7% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +16.0%, down from +17.7% in the previous period[1] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal expenditure remains strong, particularly in "three guarantees" spending, but infrastructure spending has significantly declined, indicating a need to monitor local investment momentum and willingness[2] - Non-tax revenue continues to decline, suggesting an improvement in local funding conditions, but tax revenue growth remains low, necessitating price performance enhancement alongside strengthened tax collection[2] - The land market improvement is not sustained, indicating ongoing downward inertia in the real estate market, suggesting that proactive fiscal policies need to be introduced at the right time[2] Tax Revenue Analysis - In May, general public budget revenue grew by 0.13% year-on-year, with central budget revenue increasing by 0.4% and local budget revenue declining by -0.11%[3] - Non-tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of -2.33%, marking the first negative growth since 2024, while tax revenue grew by 0.56%[3] - The structure of tax revenue showed that domestic consumption tax grew by 0.41%, while individual income tax increased by 12.3%, reflecting strong performance due to enhanced tax collection measures[4] Government Fund Performance - In May, government fund budget revenue declined by -8.1%, reversing the previous month's growth of +8.1%, with land use rights revenue dropping by -14.6%[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +8.8%, down from +44.7% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures also declining[24] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue from January to May was 24.8%, below the five-year average of 26.0%[24]