Changjiang Securities·2025-06-21 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - The overseas AI application user base is experiencing explosive growth, with significant increases in token processing demands, particularly in inference. Major companies like Microsoft and Google are reporting massive increases in token handling, with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1 2025, a fivefold year-on-year increase, and Google reporting a jump from 9.7 trillion to 480 trillion tokens, a 50-fold increase [6][11]. - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for major AI model companies is rapidly increasing, with OpenAI's ARR surpassing $10 billion, up nearly 80% from $5.5 billion last December. OpenAI has also seen its paid commercial user base grow from 2 million to 3 million [11]. - High capital expenditures continue to support the overseas computing power supply chain, with strong demand for optical modules and devices driven by new data center constructions. The report anticipates a high level of activity in the optical module sector in Q2 2025, with companies like Meta and AWS expected to ramp up production of 800G products [11]. Summary by Sections AI Demand Growth - The overseas AI demand is witnessing explosive growth, with ChatGPT's user base reaching 800 million within 17 months, and paid subscribers exceeding 20 million. This surge is creating a robust and frequent usage base for AI applications [11]. - The rapid increase in token usage is highlighted by Google's announcement of a 50-fold increase in monthly token processing, indicating a significant uptick in AI application deployment [6][11]. Financial Performance of AI Companies - OpenAI's ARR has increased dramatically, indicating strong commercial viability and user adoption. The company anticipates substantial server expenditures to support its growth, with projections of $35 billion needed for existing products and $55 billion for R&D [11]. - Anthropic's ARR has also seen significant growth, reaching approximately $3 billion, up from nearly $1 billion last December [11]. Optical Module and Device Market - The report predicts a high level of activity in the optical module sector, with strong orders for MPO, AWG, and FAU devices, particularly driven by new data center constructions. This trend is expected to lead to increased revenue and profitability for several optical device manufacturers [11].