保险行业2025年中期投资策略：从业绩分化到资负协同，重视保险α和β双击机会

Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to experience a positive trend in business quality by 2025, with life insurance showing continuous improvement in new business value (NBV) and the individual insurance channel stabilizing [4][22][23] - The property insurance sector is projected to maintain steady growth in liabilities, with underwriting profitability continuing to improve, particularly in the auto insurance segment driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Investment strategies are shifting towards equity investments, which are anticipated to become a core variable for investment returns, supported by long-term capital entering the market [3][4] Life Insurance - New business premiums are expected to remain under pressure, but the overall premium structure is likely to improve, with NBV continuing to show positive growth [22][23] - The individual insurance channel is stabilizing, with a focus on enhancing channel quality through the "reporting and operation integration" strategy, which is expected to lead to improved performance [29][30] - The proportion of participating insurance is anticipated to increase as companies respond to potential interest rate risks and seek to enhance their product offerings [51][54] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 4-6%, driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Non-auto insurance is expected to grow at a faster rate than auto insurance, supported by policy-driven and innovative business models [2] - Underwriting profitability is improving due to better claims management and cost control, with a notable improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [2][3] Investment Strategies - Long-term capital is expected to enter the market, with equity investments contributing to greater flexibility in returns [3][4] - The investment portfolio structure is shifting towards a higher proportion of equities, while maintaining a high level of bond investments [3] - Under IFRS 9, the investment portfolio is likely to see an increase in other comprehensive income (OCI), focusing on high-dividend and high-return assets for certainty [3] Embedded Value - The NBV is expected to continue improving, with a focus on asset-liability matching capabilities among leading insurance companies [3][4] - The shift towards participating insurance and improved cost control in channels is likely to mitigate the negative impacts of long-term investment return assumptions [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities during stock price corrections, with a focus on companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, New China Life, and China Life in the A-share market, as well as Sunshine Insurance, China Property & Casualty, and China Taiping in the Hong Kong market [4]