国信期货煤焦月报：供需边际好转，煤焦小幅反弹-20250622

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply-demand Margin Improves, Coking Coal and Coke Rebound Slightly - Guoxin Futures" [2] - Report Date: June 22, 2025 [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal and coke has tightened due to environmental protection and accidents, and the inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Double-Coke Market Review - The report reviews the market of double-coke (coking coal and coke) main contracts for the week, but specific data and details are not provided in the given content [11] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Overview - Production: As of this Friday, the operating rate of sample coal washing plants was 61.34%, a week-on-week increase of 3.98%. The output of upstream coal mines decreased marginally, while the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly week-on-week [16]. - Imports: As of the end of April 2025, China's total imports of coking coal were 36.327 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%, changing from an increase to a decrease. Imports from Russia, Canada, and the United States increased, while imports from Mongolia, the main importing country, decreased year-on-year, mainly due to weak domestic demand and poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm [20]. - Port Inventory: The total coking coal inventory at six ports was 3.0331 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 87,100 tons [25]. - Coke Enterprise Inventory: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide was 6.6565 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 38,800 tons. Coke enterprises were in the red and consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in coking coal inventory [30]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 7.7466 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,800 tons. Steel mills purchased as needed to keep in-plant inventory stable [33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Overview - Supply: From January to May 2025, the national coke output was 207.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In May, the coke output was 42.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [38]. - Coke Enterprise Operation: The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises surveyed by Steel Union was 73.42%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. Coke enterprise profits declined, operation decreased month-on-month, but the absolute level remained high [43]. - Coke Enterprise Inventory: As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of Mysteel's independent coke enterprise full sample was 809,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 63,800 tons. Downstream purchasers bought as needed, supply contracted, and coke enterprise inventory decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [48]. - Port Inventory: The total port coke inventory was 2.0311 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [52]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Mysteel surveyed that the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,400 tons. Blast furnace operation remained stable. During the off-season, downstream had no motivation to replenish inventory and actively consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in in-plant coke inventory [57]. - Demand: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Mysteel surveyed that the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 57,000 tons. Hot metal output remained flat, providing short-term support for the actual consumption of furnace materials [62]. 3.4 Double-Coke Future Outlook - The supply side continues to tighten due to environmental protection and accidents. The inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66].