国信期货螺纹钢周报：供需平稳库存去化，螺纹区间震荡-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market price is under deflationary pressure with no signs of improvement, which exerts pressure on commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - As of the end of May 2025, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; M0 balance was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Net cash injection in the first five months was 306.4 billion yuan. The low base in the same period in 2024 due to policies to prevent idle funds led to a significant rebound in M1 growth in May [7]. - At the end of May, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan. In May, credit performance was still poor, with new RMB loans in a single month less than the same period last year by 330 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans performed better than medium - and long - term loans, and residents' short - term loans decreased, indicating weak consumption [7]. - In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to May was 0.1% lower than the same period last year, remaining flat compared to the previous period [7]. 3.1.2 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2 2. Futures Market Environment: Macroeconomics, Price Ratios, and Basis 3.2.1 2.1 Macroeconomics - Money Quantity - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.2 2.2 Macroeconomics - Money Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.3 2.4 Price Ratios - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The current prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are 3,090 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, 710 yuan/ton, 1,270 yuan/ton, and 1,236 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price changes are 0.00%, 0.31%, - 1.94%, 0.00%, - 1.89%; monthly price changes are - 2.83%, - 2.15%, - 5.98%, - 8.63%, - 6.65%; and annual price changes are - 12.46%, - 14.93%, - 12.38%, - 36.18%, - 38.10% [24]. 3.2.4 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) data from May 30 to June 20, 2025, shows fluctuations, with values ranging from 84 to 169 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.2 3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.3 3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Spot and Futures) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.4 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - As of June 20, 2025, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.82%, up from 83.41% on June 13 [40]. 3.3.5 3.4 Electric Arc Furnace Profits - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.6 3.5 Electric Arc Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.7 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.8 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On June 20, 2025, the output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 780.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [51]. - On June 20, 2025, the rebar output was 212.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.96% [54]. 3.3.9 3.10 Steel Mill Inventories - On June 20, 2025, the steel mill inventory was 514.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31% [57]. 3.3.10 3.11 Social Steel Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.11 3.13 Rebar Social Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.12 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.13 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.14 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.15 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.4 4. Outlook for the Future - The current market price deflationary pressure persists, and there are no signs of improvement, which affects commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75].