白糖周报：郑糖止跌企稳，偏多思路为主-20250622

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The market has digested the negative impact of the significant year - on - year increase in May's import data in advance. The basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar. With the decrease in warehouse receipts and the market price showing certain resilience, the 5600 yuan/ton support line is expected to be effective if the international market doesn't decline further [59]. - In the international market, Brazil's production data in the second half of May exceeded market expectations, and the sugar - making ratio continued to rise, suppressing prices. However, due to the rising crude oil price and the influence of the sugar - alcohol ratio, and the fact that Pakistan will purchase 750,000 tons of sugar, which may boost international sugar prices in the short term [59]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - long trading [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 0.99%, while ICE sugar futures were searching for a bottom with a weekly decline of 1.15% [9]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No detailed description of spot price trends, but the basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar [59]. - National Production and Sales Situation: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - Sugar Import Situation: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4632 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5889 yuan/ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4656 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5920 yuan/ton [23]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [26]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,279, a decrease of 837 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 28,279, and the effective forecast was 0 [34]. - Brazilian Production Progress: In the second half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85%, and the sugar production was 6.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [38]. - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 49.99%, compared with 47.81% in the same period last year [40]. - Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports: In May, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2532 million tons, a decrease of 557,500 tons compared with the same period last year [47]. - International Main Production Area Weather Conditions: In Brazil, rainfall in the main production areas increased slightly, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. In India, the monsoon brought abundant precipitation [54][55].