宏观经济宏观周报：高频指标季节性回落，运行稳健-20250622

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages, suggesting steady domestic economic performance[1] - Investment sector sentiment declined, while consumption and real estate sectors remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The June PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 27, 2025, is 2.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,101.19[20] Core Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] - Monthly export growth is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]