宏观周报：关注地缘冲突加剧对通胀的影响-20250622

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a 4.66% month-on-month decrease in the average transaction area of 30 major cities as of June 20, totaling 243,800 square meters, and a year-on-year drop of 27.79%[3] - Passenger car retail sales from June 1-15 reached 706,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.1%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1721.5, a month-on-month increase of 27.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The steel production capacity utilization rate remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate at 83.84% and the rebar operating rate at 42.31% as of June 21[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased by 0.31 percentage points to 78.29%[2] - The price of rebar increased by 3.11% while iron ore prices decreased by 3.43% as of June 20[2] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a 0.17% week-on-week decrease in pork prices, while the average wholesale price of key monitored vegetables rose by 0.65%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates a strong trend in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 9.35% and 10.07% respectively[2] Fiscal and Investment - Ordinary government bond issuance accelerated to 285.1 billion, reaching 50.5% of the annual issuance target[2] - Special bonds (excluding debt restructuring) issued amounted to 950 billion, with a progress rate of 38.0%[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged this month, with expectations for a potential 20 basis points cut in the third quarter[4] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased from 7.9 trillion to 8.3 trillion, reaching historical highs[4] Overseas Macro - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with ongoing military conflicts affecting oil supply concerns[5] - U.S. hard data continues to decline, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious, maintaining guidance for two rate cuts this year[5] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with auto sales dropping by 3.9%[6] - The U.S. housing starts annualized figure decreased to 1.256 million units, reflecting weakened investment in real estate[6] Risk Warning - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and consumer confidence recovery not meeting expectations[7]