“债牛”启动信号有哪些？

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market has been relatively stable, with the 10Y government bond yield fluctuating within 1 basis point daily, and a weekly decline of 0.44 basis points to 1.640% under a loose liquidity environment [2][8] - The report defines a "bond bull" market as a scenario where the 10Y government bond yield is in a downward trend, lasting at least one month with a decline of at least 20 basis points and a maximum pullback of 5 basis points [3][11] - Since 2022, there have been four instances of "bond bull" markets that meet the defined criteria, with the most recent one starting on October 24, 2024, and lasting until January 6, 2025, with a total decline of 56.95 basis points [3][13] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the report highlights that a weakening economic outlook and credit contraction are key drivers for the performance of the 10Y government bond, with all previous "bond bull" markets since 2022 occurring during periods of economic downturn [3][14] - The liquidity perspective emphasizes that a loose liquidity environment is essential for expanding long-term bond yields, with previous "bond bull" markets showing that liquidity conditions often improve before the market starts to rise [3][18] - Institutional behavior has become increasingly influential in the bond market, with consistent duration increases by funds often preceding the start of a "bond bull" market, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][22][26] Group 3 - The report suggests that the period from June to August 2025 may present a window for a "bond bull" market, driven by fundamental and liquidity conditions, despite the current economic data showing no significant improvement [31][32] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by a lack of significant improvement, with liquidity being an endogenous variable of the fundamental environment, and monetary policy likely to maintain a loose stance [32] - The report advises monitoring fund duration and divergence indicators closely, as a consistent increase in fund duration could signal the potential start of a "bond bull" market [31][32]