KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-22 08:29Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction has reached a point that supports the rise in pig prices, with the average price of live pigs in China at 14.19 CNY/kg as of June 19, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.18 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 4.05% [4][14] - The pet food sector is experiencing strong performance, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with leading domestic brands achieving significant sales [6][22] - The investment logic for live pigs is improving marginally, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, and others [6][30] Summary by Sections Supply and Price Trends - The supply gap in live pigs is expected to provide strong support for prices in June and Q3 2025, with forecasts indicating a continued upward shift in price levels [4][14] - The average weight of pigs being sold is 128.28 kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.54 kg but a year-on-year increase of 2.29 kg [5][17] Pet Food Market - In May 2025, China's pet food export value was 127 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.39% but a month-on-month increase of 12.81% [6][22] - The average export price of pet food was 4.40 USD/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.43% and a month-on-month increase of 8.69% [6][22] Market Performance - From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 2.63 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 3.13% [7][33] - Notable stock performances included Bangji Technology (+24.71%), Xuelong Biological (+7.81%), and ST Jinggu (+3.77%) [7][33] Price Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.22 CNY/kg, up 0.20 CNY/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets was 31.85 CNY/kg, down 1.04 CNY/kg [8][45] - The price of corn futures was 2407.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.56% [41][55]