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策略周观点:银行的上涨能否扩散到非银?-20250622
Xinda Securities·2025-06-22 08:47

Core Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the steady rise in bank stocks over the past two years is primarily due to high dividends. The decline in PB (Price-to-Book) ratio has outpaced the decline in ROE (Return on Equity) from 2021 to 2023, suggesting significant room for valuation recovery, similar to the situation in 2014 [2][9][10] - The report suggests that non-bank financials also exhibit similar undervaluation, with a notable decline in PB compared to ROE from 2021 to 2023. Q4 is identified as a critical time window for potential valuation recovery in non-bank financials [2][9][10] Group 1: Bank Sector Analysis - The essence of the bank market is characterized by being undervalued, allowing for price increases even without improvements in economic conditions. The contraction in the real estate sector has led to a significant reduction in high-yield assets related to real estate financing, while government bond yields have also decreased, prompting funds, especially from insurance, to seek alternative high-yield assets, which banks fulfill [10][12] - The report highlights that the decline in bank PB has been significantly faster than the decline in ROE since 2021, leading to an excessive undervaluation of bank stocks as of early 2024. This situation is a key reason for the recent valuation recovery in banks [12][14] - The report emphasizes that the rise in bank stocks may extend to the broader financial sector, driven by quantitative funds and public fund assessment regulations. The strong momentum in bank stocks could attract attention to financial stocks, especially if growth and consumption momentum weaken [14][21] Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights - The report indicates that non-bank financials, particularly brokerage firms, are perceived as high Beta industries, often outperforming during market uptrends. However, the report cautions that the performance of non-bank financials can vary significantly across different bull markets [21][22] - It is suggested that the current bull market may yield greater excess returns for non-bank financials compared to the period from 2019 to 2021, with Q4 being a pivotal time for this potential [21][22] - The report notes that the valuation recovery for non-bank financials may depend on two key factors: the completion of index fluctuations and the search for momentum opportunities by speculative funds [13][21]