国债期货周报：政策预期博弈下，国债期货震荡偏强-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Weak credit demand, an economic outlook, and external uncertainties supported the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, the lack of unexpected easing measures led to a decline in the bond market. Towards the weekend, stable LPR, a weak stock market, and stable capital contributed to bond market growth and increased expectations for easing policies in the second half of the year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - aspect - On May 7, the central bank announced a package of ten measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, policy and structural tool interest rate cuts, and housing provident fund loan rate cuts. Special re - loans were also added and expanded in multiple fields [1]. - From May 10 - 12, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Geneva, and a joint statement was released, stating that 24% tariffs would be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% tariffs would be imposed later [1]. - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR dropped from 3.1% to 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. State - owned and some joint - stock banks also cut deposit rates. On June 20, the LPR remained unchanged [1]. - In May, the CPI decreased by - 0.1% year - on - year [1]. Capital - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.37%, 1.49%, and 1.73% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. Market - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.54 yuan, 106.28 yuan, 109.15 yuan, and 121.32 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.12%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.08 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - Single - side: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - position investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Yield Curve The short - term volatility of the yield curve has intensified, and the trend still awaits further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].