Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]
化工周报：国内负荷快速回升，关注中东地缘进展-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-22 08:42