新能源及有色金属周报：消费端存在不确定性，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - Price: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - Supply: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - Consumption: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - Profit: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - Lithium Hydroxide: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - Cobalt: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - Lithium Carbonate: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - Cobalt: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].