尿素周报：国际尿素走高，提振市场气氛-20250622

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None [3] 2. Core View Due to the geopolitical military conflict between Iran and Israel, international urea prices have soared, boosting market sentiment and causing significant increases in both domestic futures and spot prices. The urea industry is operating at a high level of production, with few planned device overhauls, leading to expected increases in production and greater supply - side pressure. The downstream agricultural demand for top - dressing and restocking has increased, resulting in higher pre - sale orders from factories. However, industrial demand remains weak, with the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers continuing to decline and the melamine industry operating at a low level. Urea manufacturers are exporting in an orderly manner, with an increase in the volume of urea gathered at ports, leading to rising port inventories and a downward trend in enterprise inventories. The prices of upstream coal and natural gas raw materials are stable, maintaining a stable cost structure. Currently, the supply - demand situation in the urea market has not been substantially alleviated, and subsequent attention should be paid to downstream demand and market sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - Market Prices: The closing price of the urea main contract is 1730 yuan/ton (- 50); the market price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1820 yuan/ton (- 10); in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton (- 20); and in Jiangsu, it is 1830 yuan/ton (- 10). - Basis: The Shandong urea basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 30); the Henan urea basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 40); and the Jiangsu urea basis is 100 yuan/ton (+ 40). - Profit: The urea production profit is 290.0 yuan/ton (- 20.0), and the export profit is 511.9 yuan/ton (+ 9.6) [1] 3.2 Upstream Supply - Capacity Utilization: As of June 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is 88.9% (+ 1.1%). - Production Forecast: Urea production is expected to increase due to high - level operation and few planned device overhauls [1][2] 3.3 Downstream Demand - Agricultural Demand: The demand for top - dressing and restocking in the agricultural sector has been released, and factory pre - sale orders have increased. - Industrial Demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is 31.8% (- 2.0%), and the melamine capacity utilization rate is 64.3% (- 2.0%), remaining at a low level [1][2] 3.4 Urea Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, the enterprise in - factory inventory is 113.6 tons (- 4.1), showing a downward trend. - Port Inventory: The port inventory is 29.5 tons (+ 5.0), showing an upward trend [1][2]