新能源及有色金属周报：能源危机担忧为时尚早，氧化铝现货价格快速下滑-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - Price: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - Supply: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - Demand: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - Inventory: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - Profit: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - Price: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - Supply: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - Cost: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - Profit: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - Price: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - Single - side trading: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - Arbitrage: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]