能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250622

Report Information - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Report Authors: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Both bottle chips (PR) and short fibers (PF) are experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the ongoing geopolitical risks, and they may further surge in the short term [8]. - For bottle chips, the fundamentals have weak support, and the implementation of the planned 20% joint production cut starting from late June to July, involving about 2.4 million tons of production capacity, remains to be observed. If the cut is implemented, the supply-demand balance of bottle chips may turn to a tight balance or slight destocking in July - August [8]. - For short fibers, both domestic and foreign demand are weakening month-on-month. The factory is discussing joint production cuts and contract reductions, which are expected to be implemented in July, but the intensity of the cuts remains to be seen [8]. Summary by Section Bottle Chips (PR) Fundamentals - Head factories plan to jointly cut production by 20% from late June to July, involving about 2.4 million tons of production capacity. The current operating rate is 90.3%, and if the cut is implemented, the supply-demand balance in July - August may turn tight or lead to slight destocking. However, the actual implementation and duration of the cut need further observation. Factory and social inventories are both increasing, currently at around 18 days. Downstream demand is affected by high prices and freight costs [8]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to impact costs. After the US announced strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, costs are expected to rise in the short term, increasing price volatility [8]. Price and Spread - The basis has generally declined, and the near - end of the monthly spread structure has weakened [16]. - This week, prices have risen with costs. Factory order transaction prices range from 6,050 - 6,420 yuan/ton ex - factory, and FOB prices have risen to 820 - 835 US dollars/ton. The East - South China price spread is weak [20]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers with conversion capabilities may switch production. The short fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, reducing the incentive for further substitution, while the bottle chip - PP spread indicates high cost - effectiveness, and substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27][28]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity is 2,168 million tons (CCF口径). This week, the bottle chip load has slightly increased to 90.3%, and the weekly production is still at a high level [32]. Raw Materials - PTA has shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The processing fee has decreased, the operating rate has changed, and the total inventory has increased [38][41]. - For MEG, the marginal profit is affected by factors such as naphtha, the operating rate has changed, and the port inventory in East China has changed [44][45]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has significantly increased, reaching around 5,700 - 6,000 yuan/ton this week. The spot processing fee for bottle chips has reached a new low, ranging from 200 - 270 yuan/ton. The export profit has been compressed, and the internal - external price spread has narrowed [52]. Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days (CCF口径). The estimated social inventory in May is 2.93 million tons, and it is expected to reach 3.08 million tons in June [53]. Device Changes - Some devices, such as those of Sanfangxiang, have stopped production. In the future, devices of companies like Huarun and Yisheng plan to cut production or conduct maintenance [56]. Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate has remained stable. Beverage companies' operating rates range from 80 - 95%, edible oil factories' average operating rate is around 60 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet materials in East China is around 60 - 80% and in South China is around 40 - 60% [61]. - From January to May 2025, beverage consumption has been relatively weak year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines planned to be launched this year [67][68]. - From January to April 2025, edible oil production has increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and catering revenue has increased by 4.5% year - on - year [69]. - The demand for sheet materials is average, and supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [73]. Global Trade - Overseas bottle chip production capacity has had little growth in recent years, and the downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle chip exports are mainly directed to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and South America [77]. - In May 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there may be some over - consumption of the actual export volume from June to July [80]. Short Fibers (PF) Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable and volatile, and the futures - spot structure maintains a back structure. The on - disk processing fee is operating at a low level [97][104]. Operation - The average operating rate of direct - spinning short fibers is 95%, and the operating rate of spinning direct - spinning short fibers is 98.2%. The Fujian Jinlun 250,000 - ton device has started production [110]. Inventory - Downstream buyers have returned to a wait - and - see attitude, and the inventory pressure of most varieties has been relieved [115]. Profit - Polyester profits are generally weak, but the profits of long fibers have improved month - on - month [123]. Downstream - The operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventories, and finished product inventories are increasing. Polyester yarn profits are generally better than last year, especially for polyester - cotton yarns, and the substitution of virgin fibers for recycled fibers continues [131][133][135]. Weaving - Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally. The comprehensive operating rates of江浙 texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing have all declined [144][152].