能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to May 2025 showed growth, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 3.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, and the export value reaching 69.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. However, in May, the output of rubber tire casings decreased by 1.2% year - on - year [5]. - Thailand's Linchaban Port is overloaded, and the transportation cost has increased by about 20 billion Thai baht (about 600 million US dollars). The export growth in the first four months of this year was 14%, but the port congestion has become severe [6]. - Thailand's automotive market is facing major challenges. In 2024, the sales volume of light vehicles decreased by 26% year - on - year, and in the first quarter of 2025, it decreased by 7% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber market had a slight increase, while the overseas market was divided. Singapore rubber rose, and Japanese rubber fell. The closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 on June 20, 2025, were 13,900 yuan/ton, 11,985 yuan/ton, 161.40 cents/kg, and 299.90 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.44%, and - 0.03% [10][11]. 3.3 Price Differences - Basis and Calendar Spread: The full - cream - RU basis was 0 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with a 100% increase compared to the previous period and a 100% increase year - on - year. The 09 - 01 month spread was - 835 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period and a 29.24% increase year - on - year [12]. - Other Spreads: RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads narrowed, while the NR - JPX RSS3 spread increased. For example, the RU09 - NR09 spread on June 20, 2025, was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a - 0.26% change compared to the previous period and a - 15.82% change year - on - year [20][21]. - Substitute Prices: Due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the price of butadiene rubber increased, and the synthetic - RU spread converged. On June 20, 2025, the domestic mainstream market price of butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a 1.72% increase compared to the previous period and a - 23.13% change year - on - year [32]. 3.4 Capital Movements - The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was at a low level, and the settled capital was at a low level year - on - year. The NR virtual - to - physical ratio declined from a high level, and the settled capital declined to a low level. On June 20, 2025, the RU and NR virtual - to - physical ratios were 8.06 and 5.35 respectively, with - 6.07% and - 35.52% changes compared to the previous period, and - 18.67% and 21.72% changes year - on - year [34][35]. 3.5 Fundamental Data - Supply - Weather: This week, the temperature in northeastern Thailand was slightly lower, and the rainfall was relatively high year - on - year. The weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. Yunnan and Hainan are in the rainy season, and the rainfall in Yunnan is relatively high year - on - year [39][40]. - Raw Material Prices: Frequent rainfall in major domestic and foreign production areas has hindered rubber tapping. Rubber factories'抢购 of raw materials has pushed up prices. On June 20, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, with a 2.13% increase compared to the previous period and a - 19.51% change year - on - year [43][44]. - Raw Material Price Differences: The Thailand water - cup price difference was stable, and the difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and entering the whole - milk factory increased. On June 20, 2025, the Thailand water - cup price difference was 9.70 Thai baht/kg, with no change compared to the previous period and a - 28.94% change year - on - year [51][52]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex increased. On June 20, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 496 yuan/ton, with a - 30.87% change compared to the previous period and a 60.63% change year - on - year [54][55]. - Rubber Imports: In May 2025, China's natural rubber (including mixed and composite) imports decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [58][59]. - Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises fluctuated. The overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased. The inventories of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased this week. On June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.39% and 71.54% respectively, with 4.58% and 2.23% increases compared to the previous week, and - 0.73% and - 10.64% changes year - on - year [62][63]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained good performance year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in May, while the sales volume of heavy - trucks decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year in April [65][66]. - Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly this period, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao changed from a decrease to an increase. The NR futures inventory increased significantly, which had a greater impact on the dark - colored data. The spot market price continued to fluctuate within a range [68]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - The rubber market has a narrow decline and remains in a volatile range. The cooling of macro - sentiment and the off - season of demand lead to a narrow market decline. The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the overall demand pressure has increased significantly compared with the previous two years. The market is expected to remain volatile [76].