国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent may challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter, but faces significant downward pressure in the medium to long term, potentially testing $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to uncertain Middle - East geopolitical situation, risk premium can be speculated or reversed. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase is lower than expected, Iranian supply is shrinking, inventory levels are low, and US shale oil supply growth is slowing, which may drive oil prices up. However, if OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the market will face greater oversupply pressure in the medium to long term, and there may be deeper price drops within the year due to trade - war uncertainties [6]. - The recommended strategies are to hold long - position single - side orders and take profits as appropriate, and to clear long - spread positions and take profits [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - US long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [13]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and Sino - US trade relations ease [17]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens, and social financing recovers [18]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ Core Members: Al - Shaheen crude in Qatar has a soaring premium, indicating supply tightness; Iraq is a key country for production - cut compensation; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation; Saudi Arabia is expected to be the main driver of OPEC+ production increase, but other members' compensation cuts slow down the overall pace; Russia's oil revenue may be alleviated by rising oil prices [7]. - Non - OPEC+ and Other Regions: The US EIA predicts that 2025 crude oil production will reach a peak and decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and the number of active rigs is at a low level. Iran's oil supply is at risk of interruption due to conflicts, and OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts [8]. 3. Demand - Asian demand: China's crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are significant. If Iranian supply is interrupted, refiners may turn to other sources. India's oil demand is growing, and Asian countries' demand for Saudi crude is affected by price [9]. - American demand: The EIA predicts an increase in US crude oil demand in 2026, and US refineries are increasing jet - fuel production [9]. - European demand: European refineries increase crude oil processing due to strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the cost of importing Atlantic - basin crude has risen [9]. 4. Inventory - US inventory: Commercial inventory declines, and Cushing inventory stabilizes at a level significantly lower than the historical average [62]. - European inventory: Crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline [66]. - Domestic inventory: China's refined - oil profit margin recovers [69]. 5. Price and Spread - North American basis: It rebounds slightly [73]. - Calendar spread: It rebounds [74]. - SC performance: It is weaker than the overseas market, with a declining calendar spread and low valuation [75]. - Net long - position: It stabilizes [77].