Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the mainstream price of the offset printing paper market remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not significant, and the supply side will be basically stable next week. As publication orders are gradually picked up, the paper mill inventory may decrease. However, social orders are still in the off - season, and dealers are expected to sell at stable prices, with possible individual price cuts to boost sales at the end of the month. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand of bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures for delivery may boost pulp prices and have a short - term positive impact on paper prices. In the long - term, the core contradiction of offset printing paper is that the growth rate of terminal demand cannot cover the growth rate of capacity expansion, and the paper price is expected to be weak with possible seasonal highs around October [5][52]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview No specific content provided. 2. Market Trends - The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white offset printing paper this week was 5,163 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white offset printing paper was 4,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton (0.39% decline), and the decline rate narrowed by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week [5][52]. - In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained unchanged. In the Guangdong market, the price of 70g Tianyang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of 70g Chenming Yunbao and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained stable. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of offset printing paper increased compared to last week [11]. 3. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic offset printing paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [20]. Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry production was 162,900 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.3% [23]. Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry sales were 156,000 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 378,500 tons [29]. Import and Export - In April, the domestic offset printing paper import volume was 13,000 tons, and the export volume was 69,600 tons [37]. Inventory - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China, and the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [43]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. 4. Market Judgment - Market Review: The main factors affecting the market price trend are that the paper mill production has little change, dealers' orders have not improved, publication orders have not been picked up in large quantities, social orders are weak, and the upstream wood - pulp price has declined, which has a negative impact on the offset printing paper market [5][52]. - Future Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the supply side will be stable. With the pick - up of publication orders, paper mill inventory may decrease. Social orders are in the off - season, and dealers are expected to sell at stable prices. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand for delivery may boost pulp prices and have a short - term impact on paper prices. In the long - term, the paper price is expected to be weak with possible seasonal highs around October [5][52].
能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250622
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-22 09:34