能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250622

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to rise with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, reaching a new high for the year. The crack spread and monthly spread of high-sulfur fuel oil slightly declined from their peaks, while low-sulfur fuel oil was relatively strong in the short term [4]. - The ongoing expansion of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has caused crude oil prices and related oil product prices to continue to soar. As the world's most important energy trade route, the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz may be restricted, and the risk premium will still be included in the fuel oil price until the geopolitical risk is lifted [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, the export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term and does not seem to have been significantly affected. Despite support from the demand side and the presence of geopolitical risks, the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited before there is a substantial decline in supply [4]. - Although low-sulfur fuel oil's share of the marine fuel demand has been continuously squeezed by high-sulfur fuel oil, the exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia have both declined, which has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market. As a result, the monthly spread and crack spread of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore have also increased along with the price [4]. - Compared with the overseas market, the low-sulfur fuel oil output of domestic refineries is expected to recover soon. The increase in spot supply may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market in the future [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - This week, fuel oil prices continued to rise significantly. The core of the current geopolitical conflict lies in the possible restriction of the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the geopolitical risk is removed, the risk premium will be included in the fuel oil price. The export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term, and the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited. The decline in exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market for low-sulfur fuel oil. However, the recovery of domestic refinery output may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market [4]. Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [19]. Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [22]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the United States from 2018 - 2025 are presented [25][27][28]. Price and Spread - Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [36][38][39][41]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high-sulfur fuel oil cargo in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in the USAC from 2018 - 2025 are presented [43][44]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur fuel oil swaps in Singapore, the 380 bunker swaps in Singapore, FU, and LU from 2021 - 2025 are provided [46][51]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [55][56]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the high-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, the 3.5% crack spread in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, and the 1% crack spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [60][62][63]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are provided [66][67]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [72][74]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [77]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [79].