白糖：反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Rebound" rating for the domestic sugar market and a "Low-level consolidation" rating for the international sugar market [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. The 24/25 sugar season has a slightly reduced production in Brazil and a significant decline in India's production, which is bullish. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to have a restorative increase in production in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar has ended its downward trend and is mainly in low-level consolidation. The domestic sugar market is expected to rebound, with continuous production increase and cost reduction in the 24/25 sugar season, and the domestic price is moving closer to the out-of-quota import cost [3][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.76 (previous value 98.15), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.50 (previous value 5.56). The WTI crude oil price is $74.04 per barrel (+1.2%) [6] 3.2 Industry Data 3.2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 16.53 cents per pound (-0.06%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,720 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has dropped significantly. As of the end of May, the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year-on-year. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar season, CAOC expects production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 27,669. As of June 10, the long positions of funds increased by 632 lots, the short positions increased by 20,718 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 20,086 lots year-on-year to -38,526 lots [16] 3.2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons). As of June 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil was 6.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 920,000 tons. As of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 sugar season was 25.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.31 million tons. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season in China were 2.09 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons [23][24] 3.3 Operation Suggestions - The international market is in low-level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies. The domestic market is expected to rebound, with the domestic price moving closer to the out-of-quota import cost, and the trading rhythm revolves around the import rhythm [3][34]