房地产行业周度观点更新：三季度可能迎来政策宽松窗口-20250622

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [10] Core Insights - The report suggests that the downward pressure on housing prices continues to increase, and the need for policy easing is becoming more urgent as the third quarter approaches. Structural tools specifically targeting the real estate sector are expected to be more impactful than conventional measures [2][4][8] - The current positioning of development stocks is relatively low, indicating a potential opportunity for selective allocation as the market prepares for a trading window. Companies with stable cash flows and potential high dividends in commercial, brokerage, and property management sectors are identified as strategic opportunities [2][4][8] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.07% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 8.08%, indicating underperformance relative to the CSI 300 index [5][13] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's performance has been relatively poor, with both development and property management stocks generally declining [5] Policy Developments - Recent policies from cities like Xi'an and Shenzhen aim to stabilize the real estate market by lowering purchase thresholds and optimizing land supply, which may support developers and enhance profit margins [6][16] - Xi'an's new measures include optimizing land supply, improving housing construction systems, and enhancing financial support for real estate, while Shenzhen's regulations allow for adjustments in the allocation of affordable housing to relieve developer pressure [6][16] Sales Data - New housing transaction volumes in sample cities are at low levels, with a year-to-date cumulative decline of 0.6% for new homes and a 21.2% increase for second-hand homes [7][18] - The report notes that the transaction volume for new homes has turned negative year-to-date, while second-hand homes show a positive trend [7][18]