煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：台风影响华南及沿海煤耗增加有限，煤价触底震荡运行-20250622

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels and weak demand, limiting upward momentum. However, with the onset of high-temperature weather and the approaching peak season, there is potential for coal prices to bottom out and rise further [1] - The report highlights that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 48,300 tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow decreased by 50,600 tons, indicating a slight imbalance in supply and demand [1][25] - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the coal sector [2][35] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,359.90 points, down 0.85% week-on-week, while the coal sector index fell by 0.70% [10] - The average daily coal price at Qinhuangdao port remained stable at 609 RMB/ton [16] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.8729 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.03%, while the outflow was 1.8436 million tons, a decrease of 0.03% [25][30] - The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 28.838 million tons, an increase of 0.52% week-on-week [30] 3. Price Trends - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong increased by 20 RMB/ton to 521 RMB/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable [16] - The international thermal coal price index showed a slight decline, with Newcastle coal prices down by 1.90 USD/ton [18] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests that resource stocks will be favored due to ongoing fixed-income asset shortages [2][35] - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][35]