Workflow
宏观周度观察:美方空袭加剧中东局势复杂性,伊以冲突正滑向中长期对抗-20250622
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 09:52

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict is sliding towards a long - term confrontation due to the US direct military intervention, which will increase the complexity of regional conflicts in the Middle East and put pressure on global risk appetite. The volatility centers of crude oil and gold will rise [2][3]. - The achievement of the US trade negotiation's phased results may be postponed because of multiple constraints at home and abroad [4][5]. - Considering the uncertainties in trade negotiations and geopolitical factors, as well as the gradual slowdown of the US economy, the Fed is more likely to maintain patience in policy, with a high probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in the third quarter and a possible 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts within the year [6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 The Israel - Iran Conflict Sliding towards Long - term Confrontation, with the Volatility Centers of Crude Oil and Gold Rising - The US direct military intervention has escalated the Israel - Iran conflict, making the confrontation irreversible and long - term, and the geopolitical risk has spread to the entire Middle East [2]. - The US military intervention has intensified the contradiction of strategic resource dispersion, increasing military expenditure pressure and potentially affecting domestic and economic agendas [2]. - In the long run, neither Iran nor Israel has the absolute military ability to end the conflict quickly, and the conflict is sliding towards long - term confrontation. The Israel - Iran situation will put pressure on global risk appetite, and the volatility centers of crude oil and gold will be pushed up [3]. 1.2 Internal and External Constraints May Postpone the Achievement of the US Trade Negotiation's Phased Results - This week, the global trade negotiation situation was stalemated, and the US - Japan, US - Canada, and US - EU trade negotiations made no progress. There were obvious differences in positions between the two sides in the US - Japan trade dialogue, and the US - EU had fundamental differences in the "fair agreement" standard. Canada considered raising tariffs on US steel and aluminum products [4][5]. - In the long run, the global trade system is being reconstructed, and the US "reciprocal trade" principle conflicts with other countries' interests, resulting in long - term tariff negotiations. In the short term, the US trade negotiation team's efficiency is restricted by the Middle East situation and domestic political pressure, and the achievement of phased results may be postponed [5]. 1.3 Geopolitical Situation and Trade Negotiation Progress Add Uncertainties, and the Fed Maintains a Wait - and - See Strategy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. Powell warned that tariffs might push up inflation, and the impact of new tariffs on inflation would be clearer after the negotiation results were determined in July and August [6]. - The uncertainty of trade negotiation progress and geopolitical factors have affected the Fed's monetary policy schedule. The US economic fundamentals are moderately cooling, but consumer spending is supported by wage growth, and the Fed may maintain interest rates unchanged in the third quarter and cut interest rates 1 - 2 times within the year [6][8]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight financial opening - up measures. The one - year and five - year LPR remained unchanged, and this week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [10]. - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries decreased, and the "national subsidy" for home appliances would last until the end of 2025 [10]. - The national authorities responded to the "national subsidy" plan. In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail increased, and from January to May, the national online retail sales increased by 8.5% [10]. - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment decreased, and the real estate development investment decreased. In May, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow [10]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Fed kept the target overnight interest rate unchanged, still expecting to cut interest rates twice this year. Powell warned that tariffs might push up inflation, and the US economic forecast showed mild stagflation [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased but remained high. In May, the new housing starts reached a new low since May 2020. In June, consumer confidence improved, but tariff anxiety remained. In May, retail sales decreased [11]. - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, planned to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and its governor said that inflation expectations were not anchored. The Japanese prime minister said that salary increase was more important than tax cuts, and the US - Japan tariff negotiation was not concluded [12]. - Trump emphasized the role of tariffs in the US - Canada agreement, while Canada opposed it. The two sides agreed to continue negotiations in the next 30 days. Trump criticized the EU and Japan in trade negotiations, and Canada might adjust counter - tariffs on US steel and aluminum products [12]. - Trump announced the successful air strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the US currently has no further military strike plan but warned Iran [12]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - Next week, important data such as the eurozone's and the US's June PMI initial values, the US's housing sales data, consumer confidence index, and core PCE price index will be released [13].