铜产业链周度报告-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market remains tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the tense situation in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are at a low level, and LME copper inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, the off - season characteristics are evident, with a decline in power grid orders and weak performance in new energy, photovoltaics, and home decoration. The demand for copper tubes from the air - conditioning industry has weakened, but lower prices can still attract downstream restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, the spot processing fee TC is continuously weakening, and the supply of recycled copper is in short supply. The probability of future production cuts or shutdowns of overseas smelters is increasing. [6] - Due to the fluctuations in US tariff policies and the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are becoming more cautious about global trade and economic growth. The macro and micro logics lack resonance, and it is expected that the price will not show a trend. However, the low domestic and overseas inventories indicate that there is still upward elasticity when the copper price is low. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage, but the large B - structure of LME will lead to losses for short - position roll - over. At the same time, the low - level depletion of domestic inventories allows the Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage to continue to be held. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The copper price volatility in the four markets continues to be weak. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 17%, and the LME copper price volatility is around 5%. [10] - Term Spread: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper has widened, and the LME copper spot premium has increased. The spread between Shanghai copper 07 - 08 has risen from 210 yuan/ton on June 13th to 240 yuan/ton on June 20th. The LME 0 - 3 spread has expanded from a premium of 73.41 US dollars/ton to 274.99 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed. [12][14] - Position: The positions of Shanghai copper, COMEX, LME copper, and international copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 20,700 lots to 531,200 lots. [15] - Fund and Industrial Position: The net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased. The net short position of LME commercial has decreased from 67,300 lots on June 6th to 67,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased from 24,100 lots on June 3rd to 26,300 lots on June 10th. [21] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, rising from a premium of 35 yuan/ton on June 13th to 120 yuan/ton on June 20th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded to 40 US dollars/ton. The US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has risen to 190 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable at 107.5 US dollars/ton. [25][27] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has declined from 491,300 tons on June 12th to 487,600 tons on June 19th. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, slightly rising from 144,800 tons on June 12th to 145,900 tons on June 19th. The bonded - area inventory has increased from 59,700 tons on June 12th to 64,300 tons on June 19th. The COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. [34] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 07 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating relatively tight overseas spot markets. [35] 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, with China importing 2.3952 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The port inventory has decreased from 632,000 tons on June 13th to 514,000 tons on June 20th. The processing fee has continued to be weak, with the spot TC at - 44.78 US dollars/ton in the week of June 20th, and the smelter loss is about 3,712 yuan/ton. [38][41] - Recycled Copper: The import of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year. In May, the import of recycled copper was 185,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 91,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.23%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [42][48] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased, with 74,000 tons imported in April, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, the processing fee was at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 800 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [53] - Refined Copper: The production of domestic refined copper has increased more than expected. In May, the production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. The import volume has increased, with 253,100 tons imported in May, a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. Attention should be paid to the profitability of copper exports. [56] 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of June 19th, the operating rate of wire and cable declined. [59] - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has remained stable. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened. [62][65] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level. [66] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well, with the cumulative consumption from January to May at 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and the apparent consumption at 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 140.8 billion yuan from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%. [74] - Air - Conditioning and New Energy Vehicles: In May, the domestic air - conditioning production was 20.812 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%, and the production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.11%. [76]