铅产业链周度报告-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with short - term lateral movement under weak supply and demand and a bullish outlook in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - The loss of secondary lead is severe, and the operating rate is low. The price of waste batteries is suppressed by negative demand feedback, and the profit and loss of secondary lead is at a historical low. The supply of primary lead remains stable at a relatively high level in the same period of history. In the short term, the willingness to resume production of secondary lead is low, and consumption is in the off - season, with limited demand for lead ingots. In the short term, the supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price is adjusted within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long term, the long - position profit - loss ratio is favorable, and the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price and Price Change: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.80%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,875 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.39%. The closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 1,981 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.58% [6] - Transaction and Position Change: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 26,878 lots, a decrease of 5,836 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 34,107 lots, a decrease of 9,497 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 3,836 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 154,029 lots, an increase of 7,000 lots [6] - Spread Change: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 28.49 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.56 dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between near - month and continuous - first contract was - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of near - month to continuous - first inter - period arbitrage was 77.82 yuan/ton [6] - Inventory Change: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 43,860 tons, a decrease of 369 tons compared with the previous week. The SHFE total inventory was 51,291 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.25%, a decrease of 4.36% [6] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, production, inventory, operating rate, processing fees, and profits of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends in different years, and the domestic production also fluctuates. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the operating rate also change over time [25][26] - Primary Lead: The production of primary lead shows an upward trend in some years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is also presented [27][28] - Secondary Lead: The production of secondary lead shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate is relatively low at present. The price of waste batteries, the cost, profit and loss, and raw material inventory of secondary lead are also analyzed. The loss of secondary lead is severe, which restricts the operating rate [27][29] - Import and Export: The export volume, import profit and loss, net import volume, and monthly import volume of lead ingots are presented. The import and export situation of lead shows different trends in different years [30] 3. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - Lead - Acid Battery: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries are presented. The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows different trends in different years, the operating rate fluctuates, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers are relatively high [33] - Terminal Consumption: The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles and the actual consumption volume of lead are presented. The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles shows different trends in different years, and the actual consumption volume of lead also fluctuates [35]