Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The iron ore market is experiencing a new round of game between reality and expectation, with prices in a range - bound oscillation. The market is trading the strong reality brought by hot metal and inventory data, while future expectations are in a tug - of - war with the strong reality. It is difficult for iron ore prices to have a smooth unilateral trend, and the timing of price correction may need to wait for signs of marginal weakening in the actual fundamentals [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 677,000 lots, a decrease of 18,900 lots. The average daily trading volume was 420,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued the trend of supplementary decline. For example, the price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port dropped from 816 yuan/ton last week to 805 yuan/ton this week [8]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Mainstream Mines: Mainstream shipments have recovered to relatively high levels. With the end - of - fiscal - year volume - pushing drives of BHP and Fortescue, the expectation of loose supply is gradually strengthening. Recently, shipments have returned to year - on - year highs, and freight rates have risen [5][12][16]. - Non - mainstream Mines: Indian shipments increased month - on - month, while Peruvian shipments have not recovered [18]. - Domestic Mines: Production activities in the southwest region were restricted by anti - corruption inspections, and recently, operations in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [26]. 3.4 Iron Ore Demand - Downstream Demand: The production of hot metal and five major steel products fluctuated again, providing some support for spot demand [30]. - Scrap Steel Substitution Effect: Scrap steel arrivals were relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron widened again. The substitution effect of raw materials was relatively weak [34]. 3.5 Iron Ore Inventory The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived [37][38]. 3.6 Downstream Profits The performance of finished product prices was relatively strong, and profits were revised upwards [40]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of low - grade ores was firm, and the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) narrowed to a relatively low level. The industrial - end driver mainly comes from the fact that under the background of low coke prices, steel mills tend to use more coke and low - grade ores to optimize the overall cost structure [45]. 3.8 Futures Spread - The 9 - 1 spread narrowed and then widened again, mainly driven by the strong fundamentals of the current situation [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The futures price was firm, the spot price continued to decline, and the basis repair market continued [54].
铁矿石周度观点-20250622
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-22 10:02