锌产业链周度报告-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Weak" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is expected to face increasing supply and decreasing demand during the off - season, leading to a gradual manifestation of oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, holding short positions is recommended. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and as the off - season deepens, the downward trend will be more pronounced. Positive spread positions within a quarter can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Price Changes: The last - week closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 21,845, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 21,935, with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The last - week closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,649, with a weekly increase of 0.86% [7] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 104,696, a decrease of 86,341 from the previous week, and the open interest was 76,563, a decrease of 46,597. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 6,815, a decrease of 9,197, and the open interest was 207,970, an increase of 1,574 [7] - Inventory Changes: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 229 to 8,743; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 2,602 to 42,864; social inventory increased by 2,500 to 79,600; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 to 126,225, and the注销仓单 ratio was 25.57%, a decrease of 18.30% [7] 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low. Zinc ore inventory at ports and smelters is relatively abundant [9][10] - Profit: Zinc ore mining companies' profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [11][12] - Production Capacity Utilization: Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded to a median level in the same period. Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization is at a high level in the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization has decreased and is at a relatively low level in history [13][14] 3.3. Trading Perspective - Spot: Spot premiums have declined from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19] - Spread: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end is gradually moving out of the back structure [21] - Inventory: Inventory has shown a stable trend at a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level [22] - Open Interest: The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level in the same period [31] 3.4. Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period [34][35] - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [36][39] 3.5. Zinc Demand - Downstream Processing Materials: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has slightly recovered and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [45][47] - End - Users: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 3.6. Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [60]