铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250622

Report Summary Investment Rating - The industry's strength is rated as weak [2] Core Views - In the short - term, the fundamental situation of cast aluminum alloy is characterized by weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, the negative feedback of demand is evident. Cast aluminum alloy enterprises reduce their开工率 due to sales pressure, which reduces the demand for scrap aluminum, suppresses scrap aluminum prices, and loosens the downside space. In the short term, cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be under pressure during the off - season, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. - Considering historical seasonality, the monthly structure is highly likely to show a Back pattern in the third quarter. Market participants can still focus on entering inter - period positive spreads at low prices and expect to realize profits during the peak consumption season [6]. - Usually, when the ADC12 - A00 spread converges, one can enter a short - AD long - AL position. However, currently, the profit - loss ratio of this position is not good. In the third quarter, as automobile production ramps up, driving positive feedback on ADC12 demand, one can pre - arrange a long - AD short - AL position [6]. Section Summaries Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 159,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73%, and the cumulative import was 856,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.09% [14]. - The refined - scrap price spread is trending upwards [19]. Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has a short - term slight decline, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to weaken [27]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively strong and presents certain seasonal patterns [32]. - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a slight decline, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37]. - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average calculation shows a loss [42]. - The explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have a slight decline [47]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [49]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the report shows data on production and inventory, including production volume and its proportion in different regions, as well as inventory and its proportion [52][53][54][55]. Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption [59].