国泰君安期货锡周报-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - The weekly tin price rebounded slightly, closing at 265,580 yuan/ton on Friday night. The current tin fundamentals maintain a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. In the short term, the tin price will be in the high - range of 260,000 to 270,000 yuan. The upward breakthrough of the price is restricted by the long - term supply expectation, and the downward decline is restricted by the reality of raw material shortage. It is recommended to short at high positions above 265,000 yuan [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Fund, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 80.99 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 950 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared with last week, and the Baltimore premium narrowed slightly [8][9][14] - Spread: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous C structure to the B structure [17] - Inventory: This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 185 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 100 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 258 tons. The LME inventory increased by 20 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 31.72% [22][26] - Fund: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 124.401 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the outflow direction [32] - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [34][40] - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: This week, the open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded slightly [46] 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In March 2025, the production of tin concentrate was 6,344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%. In May 2025, the import volume was 13,449 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.84%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 36.51%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained flat at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [50][51] - Smelting: In May 2025, the domestic tin ingot production was 14,840 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%. This week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces of Jiangxi and Yunnan was 46.84%, a slight decline from last week [53][55] - Import: In May 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, exports were 1,779 tons, and the net exports were 306 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1,478 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 10,123 yuan/ton [62] 3. Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - Consumption Volume: In April 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,146 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,907 tons [66] - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April declined slightly. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in March rebounded slightly [68] - End - User Consumption: In May 2025, the production performance of end - user products varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. However, the production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems increased month - on - month but was at a historically low level. The consumption of household appliances and new energy sources showed a month - on - month rebound in May 2025. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, which was in sync with the performance of the tin price [71][73][75]