铁合金周报:硅锰:锰矿端扰动信息发酵,偏强震荡,硅铁:利润小幅改善后,关注复产情况-20250622
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 10:07
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Silicon Manganese - This week, the silicon manganese market performed moderately. The futures price fluctuated weakly at the beginning of the week and reached over 5,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The cost side is well - supported, with relatively firm manganese ore prices and no expected further decline in chemical coke prices in the short term. The manganese ore market in Tianjin Port has stopped falling and started to rise, while that in Qinzhou Port is consolidating. The supply side has minor output fluctuations, and the demand side is expected to weaken slightly as the market enters the off - season. The mainstream steel tender price is around 5,650 - 5,730 yuan/ton [5]. - The short - term unilateral strategy suggests operating within the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton, selling short when the price rebounds above 5,800 yuan/ton and buying long lightly when it falls below 5,500 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. A 07 - 09 positive spread operation is suggested for bilateral trading, and a 1/3 position should be gradually established for hedging when the price rebounds to 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Silicon Ferroalloy - The spot market of silicon ferroalloy was weak this week. The futures price of the main 09 contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 5,150 - 5,280 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel tender price is expected to be 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, there is a possibility of increased supply as manufacturers' profits improve after price corrections, while the demand side faces risks such as a marginal decline in hot metal production and a rapid decline in coil demand [15][16]. - The short - term unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operation, selling short at high prices. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production, cost support, and continuous decline in hot metal production and weakening cost side [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese Core Views and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Performance - Futures: The main contract price of silicon manganese fluctuated downward this week, ranging from 5,500 - 5,750 yuan/ton [5]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood. The cost side was well - supported, and the manganese ore market in Tianjin Port stopped falling and rose, while that in Qinzhou Port was consolidating [5]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: Overall output had minor fluctuations. Some factories in Inner Mongolia increased production, while others reduced it due to losses. In Ningxia, the start - up was relatively stable, and in the southern region, the start - up rate remained low [5]. - Demand: As the market enters the off - season, demand is expected to weaken slightly. The current price and demand have basically bottomed out, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [5]. 3.1.3 Influencing Factors - Macro: The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focused on key issues in the financial field, and the central bank governor put forward views on the evolution of the international monetary system, etc., with a downward impact on the market [11]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel types increased by 1.28% week - on - week, and the national silicon manganese output increased by 1.86% week - on - week. The blast furnace start - up rate and other indicators also increased [11]. - Supply: The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 460 tons [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week [11]. - Basis: The 09 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.61% [11]. - Cost and Profit: The northern profit was - 169.88 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 5.57%, and the southern profit was - 490.94 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 15.49% [11]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range operation (5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton), sell short when the price rebounds above 5,800 yuan/ton, and buy long lightly when it falls below 5,500 yuan/ton. Medium - to - long - term short - selling layout [8]. - Bilateral: 07 - 09 positive spread operation [8]. - Hedging: Gradually establish a 1/3 position when the price rebounds to 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy Core Views and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Market Performance - Futures: The main 09 contract of silicon ferroalloy showed a weak oscillation pattern, fluctuating widely in the range of 5,150 - 5,280 yuan/ton [15]. - Spot: The spot market was weak. The mainstream steel tender price is expected to be 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: There is a possibility of increased supply as manufacturers' profits improve after price corrections, especially in Ningxia where there is a strong expectation of resuming production in June [16]. - Demand: Short - term high hot metal production in steel mills supports the demand for silicon ferroalloy, but there are risks of marginal decline in hot metal production and rapid decline in coil demand [16]. 3.2.3 Influencing Factors - Macro: The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged. Although policy uncertainty decreased, officials lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, with a downward impact on the market [18]. - Demand: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises increased by 1.34% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 395 tons [18]. - Supply: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises increased by 1.34% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 395 tons [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 2.74% week - on - week [18]. - Basis: The 05 basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8% [18]. - Cost and Profit: The cost in Ningxia decreased by 18 yuan, and the profit was - 309 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 0.33%. The profit in Shaanxi was - 403 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 23.62% [18]. 3.2.4 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, selling short at high prices. Pay attention to changes in hot metal production, cost support, and continuous decline in hot metal production and weakening cost side [16]. 3.3 Silicon Manganese Data Tracking and Analysis 3.3.1 Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main Sm2509 contract increased by 2.56% week - on - week, the trading volume increased by 117.64%, and the open interest decreased by 10.69% [21]. - Spot: The southern spot price remained unchanged, while the northern price increased by 1.45% [21]. - Basis and Spread: The basis increased by 60.61% week - on - week, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.45% [21]. 3.3.2 Other Data - Output: The start - up increased slightly this week, and the output continued to rise [32]. - Demand: The steel mill start - up increased slightly, supporting the demand for silicon manganese [38]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel mills and alloy plants increased slightly, and the de - stocking was slow [41]. - Manganese Ore: The port inventory increased slightly, and the far - month supply is expected to be loose. The import volume increased significantly, the spot price of the forward contract was flat, and the domestic high - low grade price difference strengthened [45][52][61]. - Cost and Profit: The north - south cost was inverted, the cost decreased slightly this week, and the decline rate slowed down [74]. 3.4 Silicon Ferroalloy Data Tracking and Analysis 3.4.1 Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main Sf2509 contract increased by 2.08% week - on - week, the trading volume decreased by 11.72%, and the open interest decreased by 0.82% [80]. - Spot: The market price in Ningxia increased by 1.92%, and the trading price in Hebei increased by 2.78% [80]. - Basis and Spread: The basis decreased by 8% week - on - week, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 250%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25% [80]. 3.4.2 Other Data - Output: The start - up rate increased by 4.27% week - on - week, and the monthly output decreased by 5.76% [82]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory decreased by 2.74% week - on - week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1.18% [82]. - Demand: The demand increased by 1.82% week - on - week [82]. - Cost and Profit: The cost in Ningxia decreased by 0.33%, and the profit increased by 5.50% [82]. - Others: The basis converged slightly, the trading volume was active this week, the open interest increased slightly, the supply decreased slightly, the demand declined, the inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased, the cost continued to decline this week, and the profit decline rate expanded [83][88][91]