全球资产配置跨资产观察周报：以伊冲突后避险资产迎来跷跷板效应-20250622

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Israel-Iran conflict may escalate beyond a proxy level, with the potential for increased complexity due to direct U.S. involvement, which could catalyze oil prices [2][8] - The report highlights that the geopolitical tensions are likely to persist longer than previous conflicts, with the possibility of a prolonged standoff influenced by U.S. and Russian interests [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes a divergence within safe-haven assets, where the U.S. dollar strengthened while gold prices declined, attributed to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and rising concerns over inflation and tariffs [4][12] - It is suggested that as long as the Israel-Iran conflict does not see substantial resolution, oil prices are expected to remain elevated, with potential for a pullback if Iran can quickly restore oil production or if negotiations lead to de-escalation [5][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the abnormal structure of the crude oil market, highlighting the widening term price differentials and the transformation of geopolitical risks into long-term premiums, indicating a new profit paradigm in the oil interest chain [14][16] - The report maintains a view on the U.S. dollar, predicting a short-term rebound but a long-term bearish trend, with many global investors planning to reduce their long-term dollar exposure [18]