能源化工液化石油气周度报告-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts intensify supply concerns, and market volatility risks are rising. From June 14th to 20th, supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected decline in supply, the international liquefied gas market rose strongly across the board. In China, the price of civil gas first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the market was supported by news, but the demand was weak, and the upstream faced pressure in sales and prices declined. The price of etherified C4 continued to rise during the week due to the increase in the operating rate of downstream MTBE. As of June 20th, the market price of etherified C4 in Shandong was 5,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of supply, the domestic liquefied gas production decreased slightly, and the increase in propane arrivals was less than expected due to typhoon weather. In terms of demand, the chemical demand recovered significantly. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. Next week, Wanda Tianhong's PDH plans to conduct maintenance and stop production, but the previously opened manufacturers will gradually increase their loads. Therefore, it is expected that China's PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. In summary, this week's PG changes were mainly dominated by the expected decline in market supply caused by geopolitics. Fundamentally, the civil demand remained seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end's operation continued to recover. It is expected to have a certain boost in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, PDH unit operations, and import arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price & Spread - The document presents various price and spread data of LPG and related propane contracts, including the main LPG contract, APS propane main contract, AFE propane main contract, their forward curves, and the spreads between different contract months of LPG and propane. It also shows the domestic spot prices and basis of different regions, such as East China, South China, and Shandong, for imported gas, civil gas, and etherified C4, as well as historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][9][13]. 3.2 Supply - US Exports: The document shows the historical data of US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, from 2019 to 2025 [30][32]. - Middle East Exports: It presents the historical data of LPG exports from the Middle East and major countries such as Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 2019 to 2025 [35][39]. - Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea: The historical data of LPG imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 are provided [42]. - Domestic Supply in China: The domestic liquefied gas production was 528,000 tons (-0.30%), and civil gas was 224,900 tons (-1.75%). The domestic propane supply was 374,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.82%. Domestically, the total commercial volume of refineries was 40,900 tons, an increase of 1.74% from last week. The international ship arrivals were 333,300 tons, mainly in East China. Due to typhoon weather, the actual arrivals this week were far lower than expected [44][48]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand showed significant recovery. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. The document also presents historical data on the operating rates and profits of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [52][53].