农林牧渔行业2025年第25周周报：生猪去产能：出栏体重持续下降中-20250622

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector is experiencing continuous compression of profit margins, with a focus on the expected differences in the pig market. As of June 21, the average price of pigs in China was 14.37 CNY/kg, down 0.28% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 92 CNY/head, significantly narrowed from 160 CNY/head in early May. The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.28 kg, showing a slight decrease, while the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 4.74% [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The pig price remains low, and the price of piglets continues to decline. The average price of 7 kg piglets is 443 CNY/head, and 50 kg sows are priced at 1619 CNY/head, with piglet prices down over 200 CNY from their peak. The supply side shows a clear trend of reduced weight, but absolute weights remain historically high [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the low valuation and expected differences in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies. The average market value per head for major players like Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture is between 2000-3000 CNY, while others are below 2000 CNY, indicating a relative historical low in valuations [2][16]. Pet Sector - JD.com reported significant growth in the pet sector during the 618 shopping festival, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners. Domestic brands are gaining a strong foothold, with 7 out of the top 10 pet food brands being Chinese [3][17]. - Pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 139,100 tons exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, amounting to 4.175 billion CNY [3][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates. The average price of broiler chicks is 2 CNY/bird, down from the previous week [4][19]. - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a critical variable. The current breeding stock is at a low level, and the demand for yellow chicken is expected to improve in the second half of the year [5][21]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with the average price of egg-laying chicks at 4.0 CNY/bird, down 2% from the previous week [6][22]. Planting Sector - The focus on food security emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in grain production, with a significant contribution from yield improvements. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that yield increases contributed over 80% to grain production growth in 2024 [7][23]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology in enhancing agricultural competitiveness, with recommendations for leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [8][24]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see improved market share and performance. The prices of various fish species are showing mixed trends, with overall fish prices expected to rise due to policy support [9][25]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in the pet health market. Key recommendations include companies like Keqian Biological and Zhongmu Co [10][26].