【股指期货周报】避险情绪影响，国内股指继续震荡走弱-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].