周观：“低波动”现状难掩利率趋势下行力量（2025年第24期）

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the bond market, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.4bp from 1.642% last Friday to 1.638% this week. In the short - term, interest rates are still fluctuating within a narrow range, but due to loose liquidity, the logic of interest rate decline is relatively smooth in the coming month. The bond issuance peak will end, leading to "passive" liquidity easing, and the capital situation in July is worry - free. The central bank's two repurchase operations in June show an "active" liquidity easing, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to drop to 1.5% [1][13][14]. - Regarding US bonds, the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to ferment. US bond yields have declined across the board. US bonds still have strong allocation attractiveness. The long - end may fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline but difficult to rise. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration. The US economic data shows that consumption, manufacturing, and employment are under pressure, and the Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged. The market's near - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, while the second half of the year may be a critical time for the Fed's monetary policy adjustment [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Views Q1: Bond market situation and interest rate trend - This week (2025.6.16 - 2025.6.20), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.4bp to 1.638%. The daily fluctuations were affected by economic data announcements, central bank operations, market news, and policy expectations. In the short - term, interest rates fluctuate narrowly, but due to loose liquidity, the interest rate decline logic is smooth in the coming month. The bond issuance peak will end, and the central bank's operations ensure liquidity [1][12][13]. Q2: US economic data and US bond yield outlook - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to ferment. US bond yields have declined across the board. US bonds still have strong allocation attractiveness. The long - end may fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline but difficult to rise. The US economic data shows that retail sales, manufacturing, and employment are under pressure. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the market's near - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, while the second half of the year may be a critical time for policy adjustment [2][4]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/06/13 to 2025/06/20, the total net injection of open - market operations was 1021 billion yuan. The money market interest rates and bond yields showed certain changes, and the central bank's interest rate corridor and the trading volume of Treasury bond futures also had corresponding performances [32]. 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally increased. Commodity prices such as coal, vegetables, and crude oil also had different changes. The exchange rates of major currencies and the performance of stock indexes and bond yields in the international market also varied [56][69][75]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 60 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 261.753 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 137.418 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 124.334 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Yunnan, Beijing, and Shanghai. Yunnan issued 52.7 billion yuan of local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts [83][86][87]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local bonds was 51.21 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 511.578 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.00%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Shandong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active trading terms were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [96]. 3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The maturity yields of local bonds across all terms declined this week. The issuance plan shows the planned issuance amounts of different provinces in the coming days [100][101]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 426 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 411.377 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 305.974 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 105.403 billion yuan, an increase of 57.65 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 73.28 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds was 112.73 billion yuan [102][103]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing increased by 6.99bp, while that of medium - term notes decreased by 8.68bp [113]. 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 711.571 billion yuan. The trading volumes of different bond types and credit ratings varied [115]. 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all declined this week [115][116][118]. 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [120][122][126]. 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes generally widened, those of enterprise bonds generally widened, and those of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [132][135][139]. 4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds [143]. 4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - This week, there were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer credit ratings or outlooks [145].