锌：供应放量态势不改，锌价依旧承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc supply continues to increase, and zinc prices remain under pressure. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory accumulates [1][4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Industry Supply and Demand - Mine End: In June, domestic northern mines are expected to complete resumption. Domestic zinc concentrate production continues to release. The import window for zinc concentrates closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates in June is expected to remain relatively loose, and the processing fees are still on an upward trend [4]. - Smelting End: In June, with the supplement of imported ores and the release of domestic mine production, processing fees continued to rise. Smelters had sufficient raw materials and high production enthusiasm. The import window for refined zinc closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. It is expected that the supply of domestic refined zinc will increase significantly in June [4]. - Consumption: Currently, zinc consumption is in the off - season, but the continuation of the "trade - in" policy in China may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - Inventory Data: As of June 19, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 12 and 1,500 tons from June 16. LME zinc inventory (June 20) was 126,200 tons, a decrease of 4,775 tons from June 13 [4]. - Price Outlook: Affected by macro factors, zinc prices may fluctuate. With zinc consumption in the off - season and no improvement in downstream new orders, the downstream procurement intensity is expected to weaken. On the supply side, domestic smelters are actively producing, and with the inflow of imported goods, the supply of refined zinc increased significantly in June. The domestic social inventory has slightly increased this week. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory continues to accumulate [4]. - Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific content provided in the text other than the title. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - Zinc Ore Supply - Production: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 3936,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Overseas production was 2741,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%; China's production was 1,195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, it is expected to be 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42% [24]. - Import: In May 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. In June, it is expected that the import volume of zinc ores will still be high [32]. - Total Supply: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 5,462,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%; from January to May, the cumulative total supply was 23,901,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99% [35]. - Processing Fees: In June, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,050 yuan/ton compared to December 2024; the monthly processing fee for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 55 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 95 US dollars/dry ton compared to December 2024. On June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,600 yuan/ton, and that for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates was 45 US dollars/ton [38]. - Global Refined Zinc Production - In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 13,620,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the annual demand was 13,647,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 4,425,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 105,500 tons or 2.33%. The consumption was 4,274,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 63,900 tons or 1.47%. The cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [42]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Production: In May, the domestic smelter operating rate was 90.62%. In May, domestic refined zinc production was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. It is expected that the production in June will increase by 7.43% month - on - month to 590,200 tons [45][46]. - Import: In May 2025, the import of refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36%, and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In June, it is expected that the domestic supply of refined zinc will increase significantly [48]. - Consumption - Related Data - No detailed consumption data is provided in the text, but it mentions that attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors, and the "trade - in" policy may boost consumption [4].