美豆周度报告-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market lacks a basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small because of cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Section Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans first declined and then rose, showing a sideways oscillation. The price of US soybean meal continued to fall, while the price of US soybean oil rose significantly to a new high for the year and is expected to enter a period of platform oscillation. Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) increased, while the spot price of soybeans in southwestern Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso remained stable, while the average spot price at Paranagua Port increased slightly [8][9][13][15] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean-producing areas has improved, with the drought rate dropping from 39% last week to 35%. The temperature in the main soybean-producing areas of the US is 2 - 6 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate good precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas, with no threat of drought. In Brazil, precipitation in the central region is low, and Argentina has entered a cold and dry winter. The US soybean planting progress is 93%, up from 90% last week, approaching the end of the planting season [29][31][33][42] Demand Factors - As of June 13, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.87 per bushel, up from $1.49 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 406,100 tons, down from 453,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 215,800 tons, down from 547,000 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 539,500 tons, up from 61,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 75,000 tons, up from 58,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is -0.227, indicating a basically neutral state. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of June 10, the net long position of soybeans was 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [58][60][66][68][70]