油料周报：农作物生长期，关注天气波动-20250622

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - In the soybean market, prices showed a mixed trend. The futures price of the main soybean contract fluctuated, and the supply situation was alleviated by the inflow of provincial reserves. In the peanut market, prices oscillated slightly upward, but the upward momentum was insufficient due to weak demand [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2509 this week was 4,259 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 18 yuan or 0.4%. As of June 19, the closing price was 4,233 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.83% [1][2] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in various regions of Northeast China decreased by 18 compared to last week. The estimated soybean arrivals in June 2025 were 10.86 million tons, with domestic soybean inventories being continuously consumed, but the supply shortage was alleviated by the inflow of provincial reserves [1] Market Analysis - The price of the main soybean contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange first rose and then fell. The soybean prices in Northeast China remained stable, while those in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins showed a slight increase. The downstream demand was in the off - season [2] Peanut Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,246 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34 yuan or 0.4% [3] - Spot: The spot basis in different regions showed different changes. As of June 19, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 6,140 tons compared to last week. The arrivals at oil mills and the domestic market were both small, and the overall sales volume was average, with prices being stable with a slight upward trend [3] Market Analysis - The domestic peanut prices oscillated slightly upward. As of June 19, 2025, the average price of national common peanuts was 9,080 yuan/ton, a 0.89% increase from last week. However, the upward momentum was insufficient due to weak demand from the domestic market and food factories, as well as the cautious procurement strategy of oil mills [4][5]