市场情绪好转，钢价区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is currently in a state where supply - demand contradictions are not significant. For rebar, as the building materials enter the off - season, the production, sales, and inventory are continuously declining, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices. For hot - rolled coils, the profit of plates is better than that of building materials, with strong production and sales resilience. Although there is a slight decline in exports, it remains at a high level in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1][2]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - Price: This week, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. As of Friday's close, the rebar main contract 2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3116 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Supply: On June 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, a 0.41 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.36 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from last week but an increase of 2.24 million tons year - on - year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6851 million tons, a 96,600 - ton increase from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.1218 million tons, a 46,100 - ton increase from last week, and hot - rolled coil output was 3.2545 million tons, an 8000 - ton increase from last week [1][25]. - Consumption: The apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 8.8418 million tons, a 160,800 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7800 tons from last week, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons, an increase of 108,100 tons from last week [1][29]. - Inventory: This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 13.3889 million tons, a decrease of 156,700 tons from last week. The rebar inventory was 5.5107 million tons, a decrease of 70,100 tons from last week, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4017 million tons, a decrease of 52,400 tons from last week [2][32]. Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy for unilateral trading is to expect the market to move in a range - bound manner. - Other Strategies: There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].