食品饮料2025年中期策略：追逐结构景气，守望底部稳增长

Core Insights - The current consumer industry shows a trend of differentiation, with mass consumption and government-business consumption performing distinctly. Companies that embrace new consumer groups, new business models, and new channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage companies are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [3][4] - The core theme remains chasing structural prosperity, with a continued positive outlook on high-growth sectors such as snacks and soft drinks, while monitoring the recovery pace of the liquor and restaurant chains [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious and emotional consumption, with products like large-pack beverages, sugar-free tea, and health-oriented snacks gaining traction. The emergence of diverse channels aligns with changing consumer habits, leading to significant growth in categories like konjac and quail eggs [3][4] - New channels such as online media e-commerce, offline delivery, and membership supermarkets are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and rapid growth opportunities for innovative companies [3][4] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with external risks expected to ease. Policies aimed at steady growth are anticipated to continue, improving consumer sentiment and spending power. The sector is currently undervalued, with a good safety margin [4][60] - Focus on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong brand equity, as well as potential cyclical recovery stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [4][60] Restaurant Chain Sector - The restaurant chain sector is showing signs of recovery, albeit with some challenges. The impact of consumption policies is gradually becoming evident, with expectations for improvement in consumer confidence and spending in the second half of the year [4][66] - The B-end is under pressure, but some demand is being compensated by the C-end. Companies in the frozen food and seasoning sectors are experiencing revenue growth challenges, while third-party sales are becoming a key support [4][66] Snack and Beverage Trends - The snack market is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, with the konjac category showing exceptional performance, with revenues increasing from 257 million yuan in 2022 to 838 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 80% [17][21] - The soft drink market is also growing steadily, with the retail scale expected to reach 585.8 billion yuan by 2024, driven by innovations in sports drinks and sugar-free beverages [29][32] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a coexistence of consumption upgrading and downgrading, with new channels capturing diverse consumer needs. Companies like Wancheng and Mingming are demonstrating strong growth potential through innovative channel strategies [11][24] - The overall industry is in a bottoming phase, with potential benefits from low valuations and supportive policies. The focus should be on high-end liquor and cyclical recovery stocks [60][55]