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Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of alumina has increased slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on commodities. Domestic alumina supply has turned to surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short - term. The escalation of the Middle East situation may cause freight price fluctuations and affect long - term alumina pricing [1][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. In Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite remained unchanged. Shanxi and Henan mines faced inspections, and the supply decreased, keeping the prices firm. The rainy season in the southern main - producing areas may pose challenges. The price of high - grade bauxite from Guinea was stable at $75 per dry ton, and miners' quotes for resources after July were above $77 per ton (CIF). Downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement demand was saturated, and their purchase intention was concentrated at $65 - 70 per ton (CIF). The rainy season in Guinea affected shipments from July to August. Newly - arrived ore was 4.052 million tons, including 2.859 million tons from Guinea and 0.996 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China dropped to $22 per ton [12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 3,100 - 3,160 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton; the domestic weighted index was 3,128.1 yuan per ton, a decrease of 64.3 yuan per ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3,200 - 3,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton. The intensified spot discount transactions led to the continuous decline of the spot price. In the northern market, 24,100 tons of spot alumina were traded, an increase of 11,600 tons, and the weighted transaction price was 3,073 yuan per ton, a decrease of 144 yuan per ton. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at an FOB price of $366 per ton, with an import cost of about 3,200 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2,931 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 321 yuan per ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.05 million tons (an increase of 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.4% [13] - Demand: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum Industry started its second - phase production capacity on June 12 and planned to complete the production by mid - July, with about 60,000 tons of production capacity to be put into operation. Yunnan Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. planned to start 35,000 tons of new production capacity on June 13 and complete it within a week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.993 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, there was no change, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.488 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of Thursday (June 5), the national alumina inventory was 3.124 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises showed different trends, with an overall slight increase; the alumina enterprises' willingness to actively reduce inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly; the estimated amount of in - transit alumina increased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 43,228 tons, a decrease of 37,215 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak, and although the perturbation of Guinea ore had subsided, the price might be strong but with limited upside due to the rainy season. Alumina supply had turned to surplus [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On June 20, 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton for downstream procurement [16] - On June 20, 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Sanmenxia, Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,120 yuan per ton between the alumina factory and the aluminum factory [16] - In May 2025, China exported 207,800 tons of alumina, a 21% decrease from the previous month and a 105% increase year - on - year; the cumulative export from January to May was 1.172 million tons, a 79% increase year - on - year. The import in May was 67,500 tons, a 530% increase from the previous month and a 26% decrease year - on - year; the cumulative import from January to May was 167,000 tons, an 85% decrease year - on - year. The net export in May was 140,300 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to May was 1.0053 million tons [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost - end - The following data were presented in the form of charts: domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The following data were presented in the form of charts: domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina, and the domestic weekly alumina supply - demand balance. The table also showed the alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap from February to June 2025 [31][33][38] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The following data were presented in the form of charts: electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [41][44][49]