中东局势升级，黄金作为终极避险资产或迎增配

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]